Asset allocation views from our senior investors


   

Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q19


Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth. 



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Global Equity Views 2Q19
 


We are more cautious after the first quarter’s gains, but we continue to find opportunities across global markets, including in higher-quality value-oriented and cyclical stocks. Trade and tariffs pose the biggest risks to our outlook.



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Global Fixed Income Views 2Q19


We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 45%; we expect a soft landing and roughly trend growth for the global economy and don’t see recession in 2019 or early 2020. Favored sectors: emerging market debt and FX, BBB corporates, high yield credit and loans and short-term securitized credit.  

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Factor Views 2Q19
 


Factor performance was bifurcated amid sharp market reversals. Equity factors were down across the board; macro factors were bolstered by carry across asset classes. We see potential catalysts in place across equity, event-driven and macro spaces.


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Emerging Market Debt Strategy 2Q19


We enter the 2nd quarter with a constructive view on emerging markets debt. In our view, the combination of a dovish Federal Reserve, Chinese stimulus and a stable servicing backdrop should lead to a stable returns profile for the rest of 2019.



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Emerging Market Equity Views 2Q19


While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.

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Capital at risk

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Q1 2018: Global Fixed Income Views

December 2017

 

Expecting strong growth and contained inflation over the near term, we see a gradual path to central bank normalization. If inflation picks up, our outlook could change. Among our best ideas: European bank capital, U.S. high yield, securitized credit.

 

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Q1 2018: Global Asset Allocation Views

December 2017

 

Amid strong growth and modest inflation, it’s a good environment for taking risk. But it is late cycle-no time for complacency. We take U.S. high yield down to neutral, keep a broad regional diversification in equities and a small underweight to duration.

 

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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) - 2018

December 2017

 

J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions help investors and advisers around the world make better strategic asset allocation decisions to achieve their long-term investment goals.

 

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The case for value in Europe

February 2017

 

The value style has had a strong rebound since the summer of 2016. However, this pick up in value returns follows a decade of underperformance vs. growth. When considered over the long term, value’s underperformance vs. growth is still significant.

 

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The first 100 days of the Trump Administration

January 2017

 

  • The inauguration of a Republican president, combined with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress will usher in a period of radical policy change in America. Most of these changes will impact the investment environment. However, in many cases, both the policy change itself and its investment implications will be shaped not only by campaign promises but by political, ideological and economic complications and by responses from the Federal Reserve and our trading partners.

 

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Rising inflation: Options to help protect your portfolio.

November 2016


  • Our 2017 Inflation rates are set to rise across the developed world. Rising inflation raises the bar for investment managers as clients require better returns just to stand still.
  • Inflation-linked government bonds can play a role in retro-fitting portfolios for the inflation challenge ahead.
  • Despite the coming increase, inflation will remain contained compared to previous inflationary periods, so it is important investors don’t overreact and pay too much for inflation protection.

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    Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions - 2017 Edition

    October 2016


    Our 2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions provide a consistent, cohesive set of estimates encompassing more than 50 asset and strategy classes, available in 10 base currencies. For 21 years investors and advisors have depended on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation, build stronger portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10- to 15-year time frame.
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    US Presidential Election 2016

    November 2016


    Access all our related publications and webconferences in one place and stay up-to date on the economic, financial market and global asset allocation implications of the vote.
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    Emerging Markets Equities. Follow-through on the earnings turn

    November 2016

     

    In the third quarter, emerging market earnings and earnings expectations cycles finally began to turn. Reported profits and margins rebounded off their cyclical lows and earnings estimates moved out of negative territory, diminishing a headwind that had weighed on performance from 2011 through 2015.

     

    Consensus economic growth projections for emerging markets began to rebound, widening the forward growth premium for emerging vs. developed markets.

     

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    Fixed Income Focus 4Q 2016

    September 2016


    Every quarter, J.P. Morgan's Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities team, led by Bob Michele, CIO, meets to discuss and debate macro-economic trends and sector developments. The team then determines its fixed income outlook for the next three to six months and identifies its best investment ideas.


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    Emerging market debt strategy 4Q 2016: The recovery continues

    September 2016

     

    • Against expectations, emerging market (EM) debt sectors have performed strongly so far in 2016, both in absolute terms and relative to other asset classes. Although risks remain, our fundamental, quantitative valuation and technical analysis suggests that this period of outperformance can continue.
    • Improving fundamentals are helping to boost sentiment, with a pick-up in EM growth and a significant improvement in current account balances and foreign exchange reserves helping to attract flows into EM assets. Chinese economic concerns are also abating in the short term, although longer-term risks to the Chinese economy remain.
    • Valuations are supportive. Although yields and spreads have compressed this year, EM debt is still highly attractive to yield-hungry investors in relative terms, while EM currencies still look undervalued.
    • While improving fundamentals and attractive valuations are positive for the asset class, the technical backdrop remains the main driver of EM debt as easy global monetary policy conditions force a considerable proportion of the global government bond market into negative yield territory.
    • The key risks to this fairly sanguine outlook are political, with the U.S. presidential elections and the aftermath of the Brexit vote highest on the list of potential destabilising factors in the months ahead.

     

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    Highlights from the 4Q 2016 Asset Allocation Views

    September 2016

     

    • The growth outlook is improving and our base case envisions a “do no harm” Federal Reserve.
    • A steady dollar should underpin carry assets like credit.
    • We overweight U.S. and European high yield and emerging market debt. The U.S. remains our preferred equity market.
    • Negative stock-bond correlation continues to provide diversification benefits. An active approach remains a key portfolio goal.

     

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    Brexit - a shock for markets, or a crisis?

    June 2016

     

    Investors have been seriously wrong-footed by the result of the UK referendum. But the shock of City traders this morning is nothing compared with the stunned response of the people who thought they ran the country. The economic and political questions raised by this vote will not be answered for years, possibly decades. But the immediate questions for investors are how long the "risk-off" mood in markets will continue and how much damage it will do in the process.

     

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    Highlights from the 3Q 2016 Asset Allocation Views

    June 2016


    • We expect growth to improve in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the level of growth is too low and valuations too high to expect outsized asset returns.
    • This is reflected by taking a quality bias in all assets. We remain neutral on stocks, duration and commodities; we maintain our credit overweight but diversify further from high yield into investment grade.
    • The path of U.S. rates and tone of Federal Reserve comments are critical drivers of sentiment; diversification and an active approach remain key portfolio goals.

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    Fixed Income Focus 2Q 2016

    April 2016

     

    • Our base case scenario for what markets will be pricing in over the next three to six months remains: sub-trend growth and inflation, with a probability of 60% (up from 50%).
    • In the near term, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) more dovish stance and substantial liquidity coming as the European Central Bank (ECB) undertakes extraordinary easing are tailwinds for bond markets.
    • Longer term, we view a global recession as inevitable but not imminent, with the likelihood increasing through 2017. We have raised the probability that markets will price in a recession over the near term, from 5% to 20%.


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    Emerging market debt outlook

    April 2016


    • We think emerging market debt will be driven more by idiosyncratic alpha than broad market beta in 2016 and, therefore, country differentiation will be crucial to seek out the best alpha opportunities.
    • We find that economic conditions are broadly supportive. Growth is finally stabilising across the emerging world after several disappointing quarters, although Chinese rebalancing may constrain Asian and commodity exporting economies in particular.
    • Emerging markets are less vulnerable to external financing pressures in the face of rising U.S interest rates, given smaller current account deficits.


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