Asset allocation views from our senior investors


   

Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q19


Although recession risk is muted, we anticipate subtrend global growth in 2019. We slightly underweight stocks and overweight duration, taking cash back to neutral. The current environment supports carry a little more than capital growth. 



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Global Equity Views 2Q19
 


We are more cautious after the first quarter’s gains, but we continue to find opportunities across global markets, including in higher-quality value-oriented and cyclical stocks. Trade and tariffs pose the biggest risks to our outlook.



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Global Fixed Income Views 2Q19


We cut the chances of Above Trend Growth to 45%; we expect a soft landing and roughly trend growth for the global economy and don’t see recession in 2019 or early 2020. Favored sectors: emerging market debt and FX, BBB corporates, high yield credit and loans and short-term securitized credit.  

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Factor Views 2Q19
 


Factor performance was bifurcated amid sharp market reversals. Equity factors were down across the board; macro factors were bolstered by carry across asset classes. We see potential catalysts in place across equity, event-driven and macro spaces.


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Emerging Market Debt Strategy 2Q19


We enter the 2nd quarter with a constructive view on emerging markets debt. In our view, the combination of a dovish Federal Reserve, Chinese stimulus and a stable servicing backdrop should lead to a stable returns profile for the rest of 2019.


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Emerging Market Equity Views 2Q19


While tariffs remain a concern, the key issue is the degree—which we deem moderate—of U.S. recession risk. The current global backdrop makes the U.S. dollar unlikely to strengthen. Earnings growth expectations are modest, valuations are undemanding, and expected returns are above average.

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Q2 2018: Global Equity Views

May 2018

 

While investors have become more nervous, concerned about trade tensions and/or a monetary policy mistake, we see enough profit growth ahead to stay fully invested in equities. Regionally we like emerging markets and, on a sector basis, financials.

 

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Q2 2018: Emerging market debt strategy - Fundamentals still strong but volatility risks increasing

May 2018

 

Emerging market (EM) fundamentals remain on a strong trajectory despite developed market (DM) growth losing some steam – both corporate and sovereign indicators show continued strengthening, especially from commodity exporters.

 

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Emerging Market Strategy Q2 2018: Internal strength, external risks

May 2018

 

    Risks to an asset class come in two varieties-internal and external. In past cycles, the main risks to emerging markets came from within (overheating economies, FX peg regimes amid external deficits and hard currency-denominated sovereign debt, among others). But as we assess the prospect for EM equities, the risks today appear to be primarily external, not internal.

 

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    Q1 2018: Factor Views

    January 2018

     

    While risk assets again posted strong gains, performance was mixed across factors. Looking ahead, we recognize the potential for positive catalysts across equity, event-driven, and macro factors.

     

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    Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) - 2018

    December 2017

     

    J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions help investors and advisers around the world make better strategic asset allocation decisions to achieve their long-term investment goals.

     

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    The case for value in Europe

    February 2017

     

    The value style has had a strong rebound since the summer of 2016. However, this pick up in value returns follows a decade of underperformance vs. growth. When considered over the long term, value’s underperformance vs. growth is still significant.

     

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    The first 100 days of the Trump Administration

    January 2017

     

    • The inauguration of a Republican president, combined with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress will usher in a period of radical policy change in America. Most of these changes will impact the investment environment. However, in many cases, both the policy change itself and its investment implications will be shaped not only by campaign promises but by political, ideological and economic complications and by responses from the Federal Reserve and our trading partners.

     

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    Rising inflation: Options to help protect your portfolio.

    November 2016


    • Our 2017 Inflation rates are set to rise across the developed world. Rising inflation raises the bar for investment managers as clients require better returns just to stand still.
    • Inflation-linked government bonds can play a role in retro-fitting portfolios for the inflation challenge ahead.
    • Despite the coming increase, inflation will remain contained compared to previous inflationary periods, so it is important investors don’t overreact and pay too much for inflation protection.

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      Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions - 2017 Edition

      October 2016


      Our 2017 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions provide a consistent, cohesive set of estimates encompassing more than 50 asset and strategy classes, available in 10 base currencies. For 21 years investors and advisors have depended on our assumptions to inform their strategic asset allocation, build stronger portfolios and establish reasonable expectations for risks and returns over a 10- to 15-year time frame.
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      US Presidential Election 2016

      November 2016


      Access all our related publications and webconferences in one place and stay up-to date on the economic, financial market and global asset allocation implications of the vote.
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      Emerging Markets Equities. Follow-through on the earnings turn

      November 2016

       

      In the third quarter, emerging market earnings and earnings expectations cycles finally began to turn. Reported profits and margins rebounded off their cyclical lows and earnings estimates moved out of negative territory, diminishing a headwind that had weighed on performance from 2011 through 2015.

       

      Consensus economic growth projections for emerging markets began to rebound, widening the forward growth premium for emerging vs. developed markets.

       

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      Fixed Income Focus 4Q 2016

      September 2016

       

      Every quarter, J.P. Morgan's Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities team, led by Bob Michele, CIO, meets to discuss and debate macro-economic trends and sector developments. The team then determines its fixed income outlook for the next three to six months and identifies its best investment ideas.

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      Highlights from the 4Q 2016 Asset Allocation Views

      September 2016

       

      • The growth outlook is improving and our base case envisions a “do no harm” Federal Reserve.
      • A steady dollar should underpin carry assets like credit.
      • We overweight U.S. and European high yield and emerging market debt. The U.S. remains our preferred equity market.
      • Negative stock-bond correlation continues to provide diversification benefits. An active approach remains a key portfolio goal.

       

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      Brexit - a shock for markets, or a crisis?

      June 2016

       

      Investors have been seriously wrong-footed by the result of the UK referendum. But the shock of City traders this morning is nothing compared with the stunned response of the people who thought they ran the country. The economic and political questions raised by this vote will not be answered for years, possibly decades. But the immediate questions for investors are how long the "risk-off" mood in markets will continue and how much damage it will do in the process.

       

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      Highlights from the 3Q 2016 Asset Allocation Views

      June 2016


      • We expect growth to improve in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the level of growth is too low and valuations too high to expect outsized asset returns.
      • This is reflected by taking a quality bias in all assets. We remain neutral on stocks, duration and commodities; we maintain our credit overweight but diversify further from high yield into investment grade.
      • The path of U.S. rates and tone of Federal Reserve comments are critical drivers of sentiment; diversification and an active approach remain key portfolio goals.

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      Fixed Income Focus 2Q 2016

      April 2016

       

      • Our base case scenario for what markets will be pricing in over the next three to six months remains: sub-trend growth and inflation, with a probability of 60% (up from 50%).
      • In the near term, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) more dovish stance and substantial liquidity coming as the European Central Bank (ECB) undertakes extraordinary easing are tailwinds for bond markets.
      • Longer term, we view a global recession as inevitable but not imminent, with the likelihood increasing through 2017. We have raised the probability that markets will price in a recession over the near term, from 5% to 20%.


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      Emerging market debt outlook

      April 2016


      • We think emerging market debt will be driven more by idiosyncratic alpha than broad market beta in 2016 and, therefore, country differentiation will be crucial to seek out the best alpha opportunities.
      • We find that economic conditions are broadly supportive. Growth is finally stabilising across the emerging world after several disappointing quarters, although Chinese rebalancing may constrain Asian and commodity exporting economies in particular.
      • Emerging markets are less vulnerable to external financing pressures in the face of rising U.S interest rates, given smaller current account deficits.


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      European Q4 earnings 2015 earnings

      March 2016

      • With 85% of companies in the Euro Stoxx 600 having reported (as of 16 March 2016), we estimate that European fourth-quarter 2015 earnings per share (EPS) declined by 5.9% year on year (y/y).
      • As has been the case in recent quarters, the headline number is badly distorted by the sharp falls in the energy market. Excluding energy, Stoxx 600 EPS actually grew by 1.2% (y/y).
      • Another unwelcome feature is the disconnect between equity returns and the performance of the domestic economy. Regional equities are 1% lower than where they were at the end of December 2014 even though the eurozone economy grew by 1.5% in 2015.

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      Brexit: How investors should approach the UK referendum

      February 2016

      Though we anticipate a vote in favour of remaining in the European Union (EU), a “no” vote in the coming UK referendum is a distinct possibility and is something that investors should be prepared for. Long term, both the costs and the potential benefits of Brexit to the UK economy are probably exaggerated by commentators and campaigners on either side of the argument. But the transition to a new set of arrangements would be messy and potentially very costly, not just for the UK but also its closest trading partners.


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      European 3Q15 earnings: Positioning for cyclical outperformance

      December 2015

      • With 62% of companies in the Euro Stoxx 600 having reported, we estimate that third-quarter 2015 earnings per share (EPS) declined by 5.9% year on year (y/y).
      • The headline number is distorted by currency moves outside the single currency area and by the energy sector. Excluding energy, eurozone EPS growth was 7.4% (y/y)—the fastest earnings growth among developed economies.
      • Looking ahead, we believe cyclical, domestically oriented firms should outperform in coming quarters as consumer demand picks up and the economic environment improves.

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      Living in a less liquid world: The do’s and don’ts for bond investors

      June 2015

      Investors are confronted with a diminished supply of bond market liquidity, amid regulatory changes and reduced dealer inventories. At the same time, demand for liquidity has increased, as the share of the U.S. corporate bond market controlled by mutual funds and ETFs has nearly doubled since the financial crisis.


      Lack of liquidity does not trigger spikes in volatility; events do. Yet scarcer dealer liquidity and increased demand for it likely amplifies volatility once an event occurs. Even in a world of constrained bond liquidity, periods of high volatility are followed by periods of low volatility.


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      Greece - From stalemate into uncharted waters

      June 2015

      Market Bulletin


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      All-cap investing in emerging markets: The benefits of flexibility

      January 2015

      •  Liquidity in emerging markets (EM) has improved dramatically in recent years, allowing investors to look beyond large-caps to gain exposure to the asset class.
      •  All-cap strategies are now available that capitalize on this expanded liquidity by investing across the market cap spectrum.
      •  The ability to invest in small- and mid-cap stocks has boosted returns over time.
      •  Small-cap stocks may be best positioned to benefit from secular EM trends.
      •   
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      More clarity over UK government, but ongoing uncertainty for investors

      May 2015

      Investors have greeted the result of the UK general election with relief, because we don’t have the uncertain result that almost everyone expected. The overnight boost to equities, sterling and gilts is understandable and likely to be sustained in the short term. But it is important for investors in UK assets to realise that none of the factors that will do most to shape Britain’s medium-term outlook have been resolved by this surprisingly clear-cut result.


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      J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Market Insights programme provides investors with a dependable source of timely market and economic insight. Now delivered in 25 countries and 10 languages around the world, Market Insights continues to be a key differentiator, providing clients with actionable market and economic perspective. The programme provides a complete framework of information, insight and commentary and is available in a variety of formats.

      Reports of the death of emerging markets convergence have been greatly exaggerated

      November 2014

      •  Scepticism over the ability of emerging markets (EM) to outpace the developed markets (DM) is growing, but ignores the long-term picture.
      •  The process of EM convergence with developed markets is not linear—and never has been.
      •  China’s economic growth is slowing down, but excluding the country from EM analysis is misguided.
      •  The long-term growth potential of EM remains firmly in place.
      •   
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      Emerging market debt outlook 4Q14

      November 2014

      Emerging market (EM) debt performance remains strong year-to-date, supported by well-anchored developed market (DM) rates.

      •  Global growth patterns continue to diverge between developed markets and within emerging markets as a group.
      •  Lower inflation expectations and reduced external imbalances in some emerging countries provide scope for supportive monetary policy.
      •  While market volatility will likely increase with the end of US Federal Reserve (Fed) tapering, liquidity should remain ample given continued injections from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
      •  We favour EM economies with a robust manufacturing base and strong trade linkages to the U.S., and sound balance sheets and the ability to absorb higher US interest rates.
      •   
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      Emerging market debt outlook 3Q14

      June 2014

      Emerging market debt performed strongly across the board in the second quarter of 2014 (see Exhibit 1). Sovereign hard currency bonds performed best as the JPMorgan EMBI Global gained 5.4% quarter-on-quarter in USD terms. The index rose 9.1% in the first half of 2014. Corporate hard currency bonds posted solid returns in the second quarter and in the first half of the year, while local currency bonds gained momentum after a lacklustre first quarter.


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