Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA)

The 2020 edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions draws on the best thinking of our experienced investment professionals worldwide. Refined and expanded over 24 years, our in-depth, proprietary process.



In brief

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This year we explore the trade-offs and complications of late-cycle investing, in particular the challenges to portfolio construction that zero or negative bond yields present. Ultra-low yields may require a rethink of the traditional 60/40 portfolio, demanding flexibility in portfolio strategy and precision in its execution.

Investors and advisors depend on our projections to inform their strategic asset allocations. The assumptions are at the core of our own approach to building strong portfolio solutions aligned with clients’ investment needs.

Thematic Insights

These articles look into issues likely to have a profound and protracted impact on the global investment landscape.

Re-thinking safe haven assets

The opportunity cost of holding bonds is rising. Consider these additional safe haven assets to help protect your portfolio in times of market stress.

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The next phase of China’s growth

China's GDP is on the cusp of middle income status. Discover the implications for financial markets, and whether it’s a good time to invest in China.

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New economy, same old returns?

Discover what the adoption of e-commerce technology can mean for economic growth and investment opportunities. Read the insights from our 2020 LTCMA.

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The failure of monetary stimulus

Explore the effect that monetary stimulus has had following the 2008 financial crisis on stimulating aggregate demand through six transmission mechanisms.

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Executive summary


A broad overview providing a context for how some of the structural factors affecting economies today are likely to drive asset returns over a 10- to 15-year investment horizon.

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Portfolio Insights


Timely commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis from our investment teams to help guide your portfolio decisions.

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Get the full report

Choose between a comprehensive analysis of our forecasts and critical investment themes, or a simpler executive summary of our macro and asset class assumptions, and consult our assumption matrix for our expectations for returns, volatilities and correlations.

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Dr. David Kelly

Chief Global
Strategist and Head
of Global Market Insights Strategy


Michael Bell

Global Market Strategist


Karen Ward

Chief Market Strategist, EMEA


Tai Hui

Chief Market Strategist, APAC


Hugh Gimber

Global Market Strategist


Important information

For Professional Clients / Qualified Investors only – not for Retail use or distribution.

This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are, unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. This communication is issued in Europe (excluding UK) by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l., 6 route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, R.C.S. Luxembourg B27900, corporate capital EUR 10.000.000. This communication is issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.

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Vierteljährliche Web-Konferenz

Jeweils nach der Veröffentlichung des Guide to the Markets, findet unsere vierteljährliche Web-Konferenz: Kapitalmarktausblick – Guide to the Markets statt. Unsere deutschsprachigen Experten erläutern anhand einzelner Seiten aus dem Guide to the Markets die wichtigsten Entwicklungen an den Märkten und geben eine Einschätzung für die kommenden Monate ab.

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