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LTCMA explained

Watch our short animated guide to better understand the LTCMA program.


Long-term investment returns

Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy John Bilton highlights key themes from the report, and how the LTCMA can empower better decisions.




LTCMA 2019 materials


Choose between a comprehensive analysis of our forecasts and critical investment themes, or a simpler executive summary of our macro and asset class assumptions, and consult our assumption matrix for our expectations for returns, volatilities and correlations.



LTCMA Insights

These five articles look into issues likely to have a profound and protracted impact on the global investment landscape.


The taming of the business cycle

In recent decades, the U.S. economy has become more stable. Notwithstanding the global financial crisis, recessions are milder and less frequent, while recoveries are weaker. The business cycle has certainly not been eliminated, but perhaps it has been tamed.

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Will debt be a drag?

Developed market (DM) governments accumulated massive debts during the global financial crisis—which they appear reluctant, or unwilling, to tackle. The U.S., for example, is deploying a significant, unfunded tax cut, European voters are demonstrating austerity fatigue and Japan is kicking the can down the road.

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The evolution of market structure

Over the past 50 years, the roles of public and private capital markets have changed slowly but profoundly. In both markets, managing illiquidity risk remains a critical element of portfolio construction.

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Surviving the short term to thrive in the long term

With the U.S. economy firmly in late cycle, investors are concerned. How can they ensure their portfolios survive the short term so they can thrive in the long term? The answer would be fairly straightforward if recessions were all alike and had a predictable impact across markets—but they’re not, and they don’t.

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Exec summary

A broad overview of our 2019 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs) providing a context for how some of the structural factors affecting economies today are likely to drive asset returns over a 10- to 15-year investment horizon.

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Portfolio Insights

Timely commentary, strategic perspectives and in-depth analysis from our investment teams to help guide your portfolio decisions.

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Asset Allocation Ansichten unserer Chef-Investoren


Global Asset Allocation Views

Das globale Strategieteam der Multi-Asset Solutions Group bevorzugt Aktien aus Japan, Europa und den Schwellenländern, sieht ein gutes Umfeld für Risikoanlagen und stuft die Einschätzung von Unternehmensanleihen auf neutral herab.

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Global Equities Views

Die gute Gewinnsituation des ersten Quartals hat unsere Erwartung einer synchronisierten globalen Rentabilitätserholung bestätigt. Aus diesem Grund erwarten wir ein günstiges Umfeld für Aktieninvestments – insbesondere für Aktien aus Schwellenländern und Europa.

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Global Fixed Income Views

Die Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group hält angesichts des kräftigen, weltweit synchronisierten Konjunkturaufschwungs am Basisszenario des Wachstums über Trend fest.

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Aktuelle Einblicke


Die einsame Gewinnerin

Angela Merkel und die CDU/CSU gewinnen die Bundestagswahl

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Erholung in Europa

Das politische Risiko in Europa hat deutlich nachgelassen

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Market Bulletin

Steht das politische Projekt Europa an einem Scheideweg?

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Important information

For Professional Clients / Qualified Investors only – not for Retail use or distribution.

This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are, unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance and yield are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. There is no guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy This communication is issued in Europe (excluding UK) by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l., 6 route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, R.C.S. Luxembourg B27900, corporate capital EUR 10.000.000. This communication is issued in the UK by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.


J.P. Morgan Asset Management Insights App

Mit der zum Market Insights Programm zugehörigen App, erhalten Sie einen ganz neuen Zugriff auf unser Know-how: Wissen, das Sie berühren, sehen und hören können – Informationen, die sich individuell anpassen, speichern und teilen lassen. Dieses speziell für professionelle Anleger entwickelte Tool liefert Ihnen alles, was Sie für Ihre Entscheidungen benötigen.

Hier mehr über die J.P. Morgan Asset Management Insights App erfahren

Vierteljährliche Web-Konferenz

Jeweils nach der Veröffentlichung des Guide to the Markets, findet unsere vierteljährliche Web-Konferenz: Kapitalmarktausblick – Guide to the Markets statt. Unsere deutschsprachigen Experten erläutern anhand einzelner Seiten aus dem Guide to the Markets die wichtigsten Entwicklungen an den Märkten und geben eine Einschätzung für die kommenden Monate ab.

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